Is Dwight Evans a Future Baseball Hall of Famer?
Dwight Evans is one of the most underrated players in baseball history. After becoming an elite defender in right field, it would take until mid career for Evans to fully realize his offensive potential. While Dewey's counting numbers (HR & RBI, especially) hurt his Hall of Fame chances in the past, analytics have brought to light the accomplishments of the greatest right fielder in Red Sox history
Fortunately for baseball card collectors, the Topps Monopoly on baseball cards for a time - for better or worse - gives the hunt for the best Dwight Evans rookie card a singular goal. The card in question is the 1973 Topps Rookie Outfielders #614, which Dewey shares with fellow outfield contemporaries Al Bumbry and Charlie Spikes. Bumbry would actually have a nice career. Spikes showed promise, although it didn't translate into a productive Major League Baseball career.
In this Rookie Card Review guide, we will look at the 1973 Topps card in depth. We'll also look at other early career Dwight Evans baseball cards that collectors have seen fit for sending off to PSA and Beckett for grading. With Evans once again a candidate for the Hall of Fame through the 2020 Modern Era Committee Ballot, his vintage-era rookie card became a hot topic.
Unfortunately for Evans, he received only 8 out of 16 committee votes, with 12 needed for election. There are two pieces of good news for Evans, though. One is that two very deserving candidates - Ted Simmons and Marvin Miller - were elected and Evans was right behind them. The other good news is he’s likely going to be on the 2022 Modern Era ballot, so his chances are already looking good. Plus, like Simmons, Evans is a favorite of the analytics community, so that’s yet another point in his favor.
In the meantime, Dwight Evans’ rookie card is still affordable. But, as we will see, his 1973 card and other early cards have been trending upward in price as older collectors reenter the hobby. It’s not only his rookie being affected, though, either. Without further ado, let’s look at some vintage Topps cardboard featuring Dwight Evans!
The 1973 Topps Rookie Outfielders Dwight Evans Rookie Card
PSA Population: 858 (8 PSA 10, 77 PSA 9, 330 PSA 8)
BGS Population: 71 (1 BGS 9, 5 BGS 8.5, 9 BGS 8)
The 1973 Topps set is known for a much more famous rookie card. It belongs to a Philly third sacker by the name of Mike Schmidt. Of course, Schmidt shares that card with a pretty decent third baseman named Ron Cey, as well. Al Bumbry wasn't quite up to Cey's standards, but he was a darn good player on some darn good Orioles teams. So, it's actually a good thing for him that he shares a rookie card with the excellent Dwight Evans.
The graded population of this card seems relatively low, but there are several things to keep in mind. First of all, over the years as more 1973 cards surface, there are many examples that won't grade well. There's the obvious corner, edge, and surface wear that come with vintage cards not being stored properly. Then, there are centering issues, and eye appeal of a card greatly depends on a card being as well centered as possible.
But, there are over 6,600 examples of the Mike Schmidt rookie card. Yes, it's the key card in the set. Ron Cey's presence - though not a Hall of Famer - was a popular player who helps that card’s desirability, too. No disrespect to Bumbry who had his share of All-Star level performances, but he doesn't exactly elevate the interest in this rookie card.
So, Dwight Evans is really the key player here and he alone drives in the interest in the card. It's real demand, of course. But, Dwight Evans played most of his career before many of today's collectors were even born! So, although many current Red Sox fans are well aware of his value, they didn't actually see him play. But, were Evans to enter the Hall of Fame, then we're talking about a whole new ballgame (pun intended) for this card's market.
A Hall of Fame induction would not only be awesome for the deserving Evans, but it will likely have a lot more copies of his rookie card being rushed to PSA and BGS for grading. There are plenty of raw copies for sale of this card for sale at fairly low prices. Of course, most won't grade out well. But, as the PSA 9 population is currently so low, to say nothing of the tiny population of Gem Mint copies, more copies will be good for the card's market.
1973 Topps Rookie Outfielders Price Trends
The specific “stock” we want to watch in this case is PSA 8, since it has the most population. What you’ll notice in the data is that there’s a huge jump in price for the PSA 8, but it actually doesn’t have anything to do with the 2020 Modern Era Committee ballot announcement.
The price of this card in PSA 8 took its biggest jump in March 2019. That’s when Spring Training was starting and the hobby overall was picking up steam. Interestingly there was also a spike in price back in 2007, likely just a bidding war. Here is the price trend of the PSA 8 since 2005.
Note that these are auction sales only and they don’t include shipping charges. But, the data shows a consistent floor of $25 to $30, which later rose to $35 to $40, with occasional bumps to $80 or $90. The card peaked at $113.50 on 11/12/2019.
The PSA 9 examples are much rarer, making up less than 10 percent of the submitted.PSA examples. That's why they don't sell all that often, but the $500+ sale in November 2019 is notable. Some people may blame shill bidding, but this looks like an old fashioned bidding war.
Typically, the rarer high grades tend to be a bit all over the place in price. At auction they tend to see their final values fluctuate at the whims of the market. One thing to watch is the percentage gap between the higher grades - in this case the PSA 8 and PSA 9. So, the November 5 $515.73 sale is 454 percent of the November 12th $113.50 PSA 8 sale. That's about what you'd expect based on the comparative scarcity of the grades.
These multipliers tend to stay relatively stable with the population reports. But when they don't, you may find higher grade cards that go relatively low. Higher grade cards tend to fetch greater premiums. So, if you learn your price trends and grade multipliers - even just roughly - you can know how to set your bids.
Dwight Evans Hobby Cred
Being one of the most beloved players in Red Sox history, Dwight Evans has his fair share of collectors. Evans has had cards appear in sets throughout the 1990’s, 2000s and 2010s, with his most recent cardboard appearance in 2017. Undoubtedly, a Hall of Fame induction will more than likely inspire future card releases. His 19-year tenure on a highly collected team - the Red Sox - ensures that there is always some demand for his cardboard.
It also helps that "Dwight Evans Rookie Card" searches on Google average 30 per month as of November 2019. A Hall of Fame induction will cause a spike in that search term. But, already, there's a healthy - albeit small - market without the plaque in Cooperstown. It’s actually significantly lower search interest than you’d expect when you consider how he stacks up against Hall of Fame comparables, however.
The Rookie Card Review considers the “hobby cred” of a player by the stats most favored in the hobby. Players get the biggest boost from home runs, extra base hits, RBI, and stolen bases. What hurt a player’s hobby cred are strikeouts, times caught stealing, and low numbers in the other counting statistics. So, how does Dewey stack up to Hall of Famers and other well-known players with similar stats at his position?
Interestingly, we have Dwight Evans’ hobby cred being almost identical to another long-time Hall of Fame snub, Dale Murphy. While they both are different players, they do share in common hobby relevance and devoted fans. Both have not quite made the Hall of Fame while being excellent ballplayers and widely-considered “good guys” in the game.
The big difference between Murphy and Evans is that Dale faded quickly at the end, while Evans improved on offense, but regressed on defense. The hobby tends not to consider defense all that highly. However, defense does matter in making a Hall of Fame case, and if defense makes someone a Hall of Famer, it does matter.
When it comes to Baseball Reference Similarity Scores, Evans is also in good company. The Hall of Famers his career numbers most resemble are Billy Williams and Tony Perez. Evans handily beats Perez in “hobby cred”. He is significantly behind Cubs legend Billy Williams, though. That he's right in between those two, however, is very good news for his hobby cred. This is especially good because these same Similarity Scores are often closely scrutinized when a player is considered for Hall of Fame induction.
If Dwight Evans does make his way into the Hall of Fame, whether in 2020 or at a later date, there will be a large spike in demand for his early cards. Be mindful that in the wake of any announcement, card prices will eventually retrace towards their pre-induction price. But, they’ll likely settle at a higher average price. That’s why it’s important to know about these other early Topps cards for Evans, since they have been showing price appreciation already.
So concludes this edition of the Essential Guide to Dwight Evans Rookie Cards. Feedback is always appreciated and encouraged. Over time, these Rookie Card Review guides will be updated with the latest and greatest research and insights. We hope you enjoyed and learned something from this guide.
Happy collecting!
~ R.A. Rowell
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