Ordinarily, when you’d project to be the 5th best pitcher on the Boston Red Sox going into the 2020 season, that’s a good thing. Still, for as promising a prospect as right-hander Bryan Mata is, he hasn’t even yet reached Triple-A. In 2020, Mata projects for a 5.16 ERA and 1.4 WAR, which isn’t that great.
Steamer600 2020 Projection (prorated to 200 IP): 5.16 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 4.81 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9
But, there is hope for the team’s #2 prospect, whose expected ETA was 2021 and not 2020. Mata dominated at High-A minor league ball,pitching to a 1.75 ERA in 10 starts. When he was called up to Double-A, the results weren’t as good. With Portland, Mata pitched to a 5.03 ERA But his strong strikeout rate (9.89 K/9) and passable walk rate (4.02 BB/9) suggest he was a bit unlucky. A 15% HR/FB rate and a .340 batting average on balls in play are slightly high.
Mata has other things going for him. He has a groundball percentage over 50 percent in the minors. That’s something he’ll likely approximate in the Majors - Steamer’s projection agrees with a 49.7% GB rate in MLB.) His scouting report rates his fastball and slider as above average. That slider he added in 2019, and he started throwing a two-seam fastball more than a four-seamer, which improved his command. His curveball and changeup are already about average.
The real deciding factor in Mata’s future success is the development of his pitch command. If Mata can develop at least average command, he could be a league-average starting pitcher. If it improves to slightly below average, he may make a good opener or bulk pitcher. If it doesn’t improve much at all, Mata’s fastball and slider are above-average enough for him to earn a spot in middle relief.
From a hobby perspective, Mata has enough upside to warrant checking out his cards. His ceiling is probably as a #3 starter, though. He does have the talent to potentially go on a run as a guy who can strikeout a lot of batters and fake it as an ace-level pitcher for a stretch. If he is banished to middle relief, or serves only as an opener or middle inning “bulk guy” then his cards aren’t going to be of much interest.
If the Red Sox don’t sign or trade for a more established starting pitcher, Mata may find himself in the pitching mix early on in 2020. Even if they do, Mata is the best pitching prospect the Red Sox have. How the Red Sox handle him will give a clue as to how they value his future potential. It’s not impossible he’ll be traded, but considering how well he projects, the Red Sox would be best served to hold onto him.
Key Rookie Card: 2018 Bowman Chrome Prospects Bryan Mata #BCP2
Bryan Mata’s 1st Bowman Prospects card features the young Venezuelan hurler pitching in a Boston Red Sox spring training uniform. Despite how likely close Mata is to the Major Leagues, this card and its parallels haven’t sold in eBay auctions since late 2018/early 2019. A PSA 10 gem mint copy sold for just $3.78 plus shipping in August 2019. His poor results at Double-A Portland are likely to blame for that. There have been buy it now sales on eBay, but for fairly low amounts.
Mata doesn’t have a 2018 Bowman Prospects Auto, nor a 2019 Bowman Auto. Many prospectors prefer to collect 1st Bowman autos, which Mata doesn’t have. He does have several 2017 autographs with Leaf and Panini Elite Extra Edition. The Leaf autos have consistently sold under $5, and the Panini Elite autos have also, although at a slightly higher average price.
The reasons for Mata’s low prices and lack of recent autos are obvious. He’s not a top 100 prospect and his poor AA results didn’t help. So many other prospects are being focused on, and the hobby tends to shy away from pitchers, especially those that haven’t shown a consistent track record of dominance.
But, Mata has the talent and chance to sneak up on prospectors very quickly. He’s certainly a nice sleeper for fantasy baseball enthusiasts who have the ability to stash away high-upside pitchers. But, on the hobby side, his cards could pop seemingly out of nowhere if Mata gets to the MLB in 2020 and performs well, starter or not.
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